December 2009

Arms Race heats up in the AL East

John Lackey had probably not even settled into the Boston area by the time he felt the true nature of this historic rivalry.  The Sox landed a monster catch a couple weeks back, inking a bull dog pitcher to form arguably the best one-two-three punch in baseball.  Heading into a weekend series and starring down the likes of Lester-Beckett-Lackey cannot make anyone comfortable, let alone Brian Cashman.  Lackey brings 100 win resume, 3.81 career ERA, a game seven world series victory (how many starters can claim that), and regularly eats up 200 innings with quality starts.  He’s also just two years removed from a 19-9 record, 3.01 ERA and 180 K’s.  His strike ratio has fallen the past couple years, but his WHIP is solid, and adding him into the mix with Lester-Beckett gives the Sox an edge over every single team when comparing starters one through three.  

The Bombers however, are not known for rolling over and playing dead.  December 22nd, welcome back Javy Vazquez, your pinstripes have been kept to the side waiting for you.  I remember immediately two things about Vaquez, monster first half in 2004 (I believe he was 10-5 heading into the all-star game) and a certain Johnny Damon Grand Slam in Game Seven.  I believe he was also part of the Randy Johnson deal (and for those of you who do not know how I feel about Johnson, I NEVER liked him…even in pinstripes).  
Vazquez was a monster in ’09 for the Braves – 15-10, 2.87 ERA,  32 starts (which is actually slightly under his average year in the ’00′s),  219.1 IP, 238 K’s,  1.03 WHIP.  He also pitched incredibly well against the NL best, going 7-2 against the Phillies, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers and Cardinals.  His one start against the Sox in inter-league yielded 7.2 IP, 1 earned run, 8 K’s, 6 hits and 3 walks.  For those keeping score, the Braves posted no run support and Javy took one of his ten losses that day in June.
Javy slots in as your fourth starter in a rotation that could be, one though five, the most complete in baseball.  Sabathia is a legit ace and one of the top five pitchers in baseball, he’s followed by AJ Burnett who is a true Jeckle and Hyde creation.  If he has that breaking stuff in control, he’s unbelievable…but that does not happen often enough.  Pettitte’s a grinder and owner of two of the most telling records of the past fifteen years.  18 Post Season victories and 6 series clinching wins.  Lackey’s got a game seven victory, Pettitte closed out every single series in this year’s World Series run.   His game three victory against the Phillies is a true testament to what you get with Andy.  Even with less than perfect stuff he’ll battle you all the way.  Vazquez takes up residence in the four spot (where 32 starts and 200 IP looks almost unbelievable for a fourth starter) and you follow that up with either Joba or Hughes (the other playing 8th inning set-up bridge to Mo).  Trading for Vazquez solidifies the rotation AND makes the bullpen just a little bit nastier.  Joba or Hughes out of the pen is imposing, especially knowing Mo waits patiently at the other side.  Hughes was a nightmare for opposing pitchers last season (post season aside) and we’ve all read enough Joba Starter or Reliever articles to understand the value he brings throwing bee-bees in the 8th inning.  With Aceves and Marteadded into this pen, the Yanks look solid heading into any late inning situation.
Exiting the Bronx is Melky Cabrera.  I loved Melky at the bottom of the order, hitting walk off wins, adding youth and exuberance and a solid arm in Centerfield to the mix.  Cabrera will be missed, albeit marginally as .270 averages with little to no power in the historic CF spot in the Bronx is easily replaceable.  Cabrera’s a solid switch hitting young player that should help the Braves, but there were no flashes of Mickey Mantle in this kids short Yankee career.  Young pitching prospects, Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino head to the Braves, Boone Logan (a young left handed reliever with little MLB success) comes to the Yankees.  Vizcaino is the only prospect I’ve heard of, and the price tag for Vazquez is still validated.  I’ll miss Melky but the potential for a return of Johnny Damon into the Outfield mix (or perhaps another upgrade over current uber-sub Brett Gardner) has to loom over the holidays.
One through five, this rotation combines power, experience, multiple right and left handers, big game credentials a little youth on the back end.  I love/hate the Sox one through three and would not want to face them in a short divisional series (which as fate would have it, is impossible as the Yankees and Sox are divisional foes)…but as a five man unit, you cannot beat the Yankees.
www.wayoverpriced.com
Follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/todd11ny
Todd Price

Yankees kick off winter meetings in GRAND fashion!

The Yankees kicked off the winter meetings with a bang this year, shipping out Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke for 28 year old Centrefielder, Curtis Granderson. Pending medicals, this three-team deal should be completed over the next day or so and an All-star will be patrolling Centre in the Bronx for the first time since Bernie left. The price tag has been hashed over in the media for the past couple days (pulling Dunn out of the deal makes this well worth it in my eyes).

Granderson struggled last year, hitting .249 but has posted a three year average of .275, 30 doubles, 15 triples, 25 home runs, 100 runs, 20 stolen bases. I’d take that line in the Bronx out of our one or two spot any day, especially considering the home/road splits of a guy in his prime (did I mention he’s 28) playing in Comerica Park, which is as close to the old time park dimensions as you can get (and when I write Old Time, I mean Yellowstone). Granderson struggled at home, hitting .230, .388 slugging, 10 home runs, but on the road he put up close to a .270 average (good but not where he’ll be in 2010), slugged .516 and popped 20 home runs in 322 at bats. Here’s figuring his road split resembles similar figures in 2010 and that short Stadium porch pulls in a better home resume than 2009′s road numbers.

Granderson also brings a couple key ingredients to the Yankees mix. He’s a solid defensive centerfielder, which allows Girardi to move Melky into left (more on Damon in a minute) giving the Bombers two above average defenders and one solid right fielder in Swisher. Granderson may not win a gold glove in 2010, but the defense just got a huge upgrade from this time last year. He also slots right into the number one or two spot in the Yankees line up.

Outgoing Yankees are top prospect Austin Jackson (22), lefty reliever Phil Coke and Ian “I’m not trading this guy for Johan Santana” Kennedy. Yes we are a couple years removed from Kennedy (and Hughes) being kept over Santana, but he’s the same guy. Yankees fans have grown tired of waiting for this control specialist to actually show case in the Big Leagues (and stay up, or even pitch well for a spell). I’ve read countless articles on five tool stud, Austin Jackson, but have yet to see that 5th tool (we’ll call it power) show up in the box score. 4 Home runs in the minors seems a little less powerful than I was hoping. I’m sure Jackson’s a solid Outfielder for the Tigers for years to come, but straight up, I’d take Granderson in a heart beat. Let’s also give credit where credit is due, the resurgence of Damsco Marte in this year’s off season made Phil Coke a little more expendable than he was in mid August as the only lefty in the Yankees pen. Kennedy will put up some good numbers in Comerica, but Detroit Rock City aint the Bronx and those numbers do not translate into Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. I like this deal for Detroit and the Bombers. Arizona, well, we’ll leave that to the writers in Phoenix to dissect.

Parting thoughts on some immediate intangibles; Granderson is coming in at a reasonable $23-$24M over the next three years, with a club option for 2013 at $13M (quite a discount compared to Damon). Granderson also will love the spotlight and should not have any issues with the NYC media. He’s personable, extroverted and carries a huge personality. All traits only add to his value. Speaking of Damon, this immediately puts negotiations with Satan himself (Boras, not Johnny who we all love) on Yankee terms. While I’d love to see Damon back in pinstripes in 2010, I have to take a couple points into consideration. No one saw him leaving Fenway following the season of Idiots and yet he did, and Boras has his sites set on 4 years, $12-14M per. Granderson puts all the cards in Cashman’s hands right now. Offer up a one (or two) year deal that includes a huge chunk of DH time at $8-10M. You have two shots at this one, Damon or Matsui would make a great DH for 2010. Granderson now gives you that option. Finally, BoSox, Marco Scuttaro just is not going to cut it. The desperate need for a Roy Halladay type deal just increased in the eyes of Sox fans. Last time I checked, Jason Bay was also waivering over a Fenway return. As usual, next year arrived a little early in the AL East.

Did I mention the Karma impacts of Granderson’s number 28…we’ll put uni negotiatons on Girardi’s to do list for spring training.

follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/todd11ny
 

Todd Price
| back to blog home |
Theme: MLB “modern” | Get a free blog at WordPress.com
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.